The KB story

[panther1021]

Not sure if this is covered somewhere else. I'm also guilty of not knowing everything in the KB history. I try to answer some questions for people, if I have the knowledge. I mostly play Quest for the carrot and also have Jupiter. My curiosity lies in what is the real reason for the expansions to be stopped for Jupiter and Conquest(if there is even more planned after violet) yet Heroes and Villain's got to launch? I'm not complaining, HvV could be very good. I just don't see why I can't complete my Jupiter set. Is it playroom? Is it Creative Team Alpha? sorry if this has been asked before I just got to thinking about it again after getting some friends into Quest recently.

[TheDavii]

Feb 3, 2016 11:42:53 GMT -5 panther1021 said:

Not sure if this is covered somewhere else. I'm also guilty of not knowing everything in the KB history. I try to answer some questions for people, if I have the knowledge. I mostly play Quest for the carrot and also have Jupiter. My curiosity lies in what is the real reason for the expansions to be stopped for Jupiter and Conquest(if there is even more planned after violet) yet Heroes and Villain's got to launch? I'm not complaining, HvV could be very good. I just don't see why I can't complete my Jupiter set. Is it playroom? Is it Creative Team Alpha? sorry if this has been asked before I just got to thinking about it again after getting some friends into Quest recently.

I have no inside knowledge of this. I have not talked with anyone from CTA nor Playroom. However, I do track download stats on the MagicCarrot.com web site. In 2015, the Quest Card Companion had 16 times as many downloads as the Jupiter Card Companion. In 2014, it was 23 times! Only back in 2010 was the ratio < 10:1 (7.75:1).

So, if those ratios are a proxy for sales numbers, then Quest outsold Jupiter at least 10:1. Since the design choice was made to make the expansions required in order, later expansions' sales are capped by the earlier expansions. (That is, since Red requires Blue/Yellow to play, they won't sell more Red expansions than Blue.)

I would expect there to be some geometric ratio of each expansion. Let's say that a person buys each expansion with a likelihood of 90% (that is, 9 of 10 people buy the next expansion, which I think is unrealistically high, but it should serve to illustrate.) There were 3 expansions for Jupiter planned. If 90% of people bought each of the next expansions, the last expansion would has sold 73% of what the original Jupiter game sold. If the download numbers are a good estimate, compared to 100 Quest sets, only 10 Jupiter sets were sold. The 90% math shows that only 7 sets of the last Jupiter expansion would be sold, hardly a hit to have 7% of your top-selling game taking up shelf space at retailers. That might make one bite, right?

But what if the 90% ratio is wrong? What if it is just 75%?

Then the last Jupiter expansion would be bought by just 42% of people who bought the original Jupiter (which only sold 1/10 as well as Quest). Then Playroom would be selling only 4 final expansions for every 100 Quest games sold.

Now consider that Playroom's most recent listing for Jupiter's expansion had all three final expansions as one (expensive) set. Games over $40 rarely sell well. But let's say that 50% of people who bought Jupiter liked it enough to buy the triple expansion. Rather than the 10:1 ratio, if we use the 16:1 ratio of 2015, then for every Quest game sold, just 6 Jupiter sets are sold (one cannot buy a fraction of a set, so the numbers are rounded), and if only 50% of Jupiter buyers buy the final triple-expansion set, then just 3 of those are sold for every Quest game sold -- and that's provided Quest's sales numbers are a constant (which they are very likely not).

Have you tried to buy into Killer Bunnies lately? There is no product to buy.

So, my best guess is that the sales numbers simply aren't there to support publishing the expansions.

In the forums, I inquired about creating Jupiter fan gameboard expansions and got virtually no responses. I think there simply isn't sufficient interest to make it worth Playroom's effort at this time.

(I do not address Conquest or Odyssey because there are no Companions up on the web site.)

[Edit]

I should add that the assumption of flat Quest sales is probably wrong. Downloads of the Quest Card Companion have fallen by 2/3 since 2011 (and pretty steadily too). So, not only is Jupiter less popular than Quest (by an increasing amount), Quest's popularity has also fallen.

[panther1021]

That is sad to hear, although not surprising. They are older games. QCC downloads could be a good way to track this, although some people could share the file with friends after downloading (I doubt that # is significant). I know shortly after getting Quest then the red and violet boosters I downloaded my copy of the QCC and put it neatly into a binder. It's come quite in handy so thank you for maintaining that. 90% is high, the 75% might even be, I know I'll be completing my Quest collection here shortly (very exciting for me, as I am lucky enough to get a game of 8 people). Well for what it's worth then I'll continue to check these boards in case I can answer a question, and thanks TheDavii for your insight.

[TheDavii]

I agree that people could download once and share with friends. I don't know of a reason why that would not be equally true for Quest and Jupiter, which is why I think the ratio tells the largest story.

Also, new players tend to download whatever version is available and veteran players might check back periodically and download a newer version. That's why I like the 2015 ratio -- because no new version of either QCC or JCC were released.

A new version of the QCC is in development for the Deluxe Edition (Zeta Zeta series). I'm especially interested to know if the republished Quest Red Booster has the Zeta Zeta cards or the Epsilon Epsilon cards. For what it is worth, a Conquest Card Companion (CCC) and an Odyssey Card Companion (OCC) are in the works. However, since there have been very few new users coming to the Magic Carrot forum and web site, I have been spending time on other projects.

[aquajimbo]

I understand that the economics likely can't support sales of further expansions for retail. But in the Age of Kickstarter, can't an alternative to retail sales be made? Particularly if the J2J design is finished? Let the players and fans back it's production! It's not like Kickstarter is unfamiliar waters for Playroom.

I guess I'm just bitter because both J2J and Conquest would improve so mightily from expansion.

Also, Davii, a fan game board would be cool, but I'm nowhere near creative enough to be able to contribute.

[BunniesArtist]

I can tell you that Creative Team Alpha has completed all the expansion decks for Journey to Jupiter, plus the entire board. We're also completed the second half (the other three colors) for Heroes vs Villains. No additional booster decks have been created for Conquest.

Sorry, but I can't share any the "economic" issues that would prevent the games from being published. I just don't know.

[aquajimbo]

Thanks, Jonathan. Can you share anything about the possibility of new Bunnies actually being published?

[BunniesArtist]

Mar 10, 2016 12:51:21 GMT -5 aquajimbo said:

Thanks, Jonathan. Can you share anything about the possibility of new Bunnies actually being published?

I don't know much about the publishing agenda. I am rarely involved in that side of the business.

All I can tell you is that I have not drawn a bunny for almost three years -- and Playroom has about six or seven completed (and unpublished) bunny decks.