Post by adamhorton on Aug 14, 2008 12:08:20 GMT -5
Hello everyone, I'm a long-time reader, first-time poster. My girlfriend and I have recently gotten into Killer Bunnies, and after playing for a while and adding pawns recently, I was inspired (ok, I was bored) to make some Python scripts to figure out the odds of everything in Magic Fountain and Carrot Top Casino. We put the output of the scripts into a spreadsheet and thought you here might find it useful:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/KBOdds.xls
Also, in case anyone is interested and knows Python, here is the source code I used to calculate these odds. If you're REALLY geeky like me, you might particularly enjoy the method I used to figure out Carrot Top Casino -- dynamic programming
Magic Fountain:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/MF.py
Incredibly Magic Fountain:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/IMF.py
Carrot Top Casino/Carrot Top Royale:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/CTC_CTR.py
Carrot Top Royale Optional Risk:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/CTR_Risk.py
I only did these because they have interesting outputs and there is a clear strategy for how to use the rerolls that I'm quite convinced is optimal: Magic Fountain is obvious, but for CTC/CTR, if you can and must reroll, then you reroll the die that's the part of the largest set of like numbers with the most remaining rerolls. All rerolls are NOT roll substitutions (in MF/IMF it doesn't matter, but in CTC/CTR it increases your odds negligibly). If there's a reroll combination that isn't listed on the spreadsheet, then you can either modify my source code to account for it (not hard) or if enough people whine at me to do it then I'll do it.
Any comments, suggestions or improvements I can make are welcome. Hopefully this will be a nice addition to what you carry around in your game with you, and it just might help you decide when it's worth it to use these cards, or to take the CTR risk... or to whine when something doesn't turn out your way (like when I used a magic fountain four times and didn't get one stupid bunny... odds of that are around 1 in 9).
-Adam
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/KBOdds.xls
Also, in case anyone is interested and knows Python, here is the source code I used to calculate these odds. If you're REALLY geeky like me, you might particularly enjoy the method I used to figure out Carrot Top Casino -- dynamic programming
Magic Fountain:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/MF.py
Incredibly Magic Fountain:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/IMF.py
Carrot Top Casino/Carrot Top Royale:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/CTC_CTR.py
Carrot Top Royale Optional Risk:
web.ics.purdue.edu/~amhorton/KBOdds/CTR_Risk.py
I only did these because they have interesting outputs and there is a clear strategy for how to use the rerolls that I'm quite convinced is optimal: Magic Fountain is obvious, but for CTC/CTR, if you can and must reroll, then you reroll the die that's the part of the largest set of like numbers with the most remaining rerolls. All rerolls are NOT roll substitutions (in MF/IMF it doesn't matter, but in CTC/CTR it increases your odds negligibly). If there's a reroll combination that isn't listed on the spreadsheet, then you can either modify my source code to account for it (not hard) or if enough people whine at me to do it then I'll do it.
Any comments, suggestions or improvements I can make are welcome. Hopefully this will be a nice addition to what you carry around in your game with you, and it just might help you decide when it's worth it to use these cards, or to take the CTR risk... or to whine when something doesn't turn out your way (like when I used a magic fountain four times and didn't get one stupid bunny... odds of that are around 1 in 9).
-Adam